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“Individual cultures still have ‘standard operating procedures’ which reflect ‘deep-rooted national political and social cultures’ despite increasing globalization.” David Calef and Robert Goble.

Back in the 90s, legislators in California and France looked at improving air quality by embracing technological innovation with focus on electric vehicles (EVs).

California:

• Policymakers set ambitious goals (e.g., zero emission vehicles) with deadlines and penalties for non-compliance.
• The process allowed for participation from the public, the media, the academic community and the interest groups.
• The automobile and oil industries contested the regulation by taking legal actions and orchestrating PR campaigns.

France:

• Policymakers adopted a non-adversarial approach.
• Minimal public participation.
• Agreements with the automobile and oil industries were reached behind close doors.

Interestingly enough, David Calef and Robert Goble (link to abstract below) state:

“California’s stringent regulation spurred the development of innovative hybrid and fuel cell vehicles more effectively than the French approach.”

“However, in spite of the differences, both California and France have been unable to put a substantial number of EVs on the road.”

Japan:

Also in the early 90s, Toyota started work on what is today known as the “Prius”. The R&D project was known as G21 (global 21st century) aiming to develop a new small car with global appeal. Toyota focused on innovation based on both new production methods and better fuel economy, e.g. 50% better than what the Corolla, Toyota’s best seller.

“There was a split between the engineers and sales executives [...] Engineers had the firm belief that the hybrid was the answer to all those questions–oil depletion, emissions, and the long-term future of the automobile society–but the businesspeople weren’t in agreement. They thought the premium price for the hybrid would make it impossible to sell.” Masatami Takimoto, now an executive vice president at Toyota.

Toyota screened 80 alternatives and prioritized just on the four showing a high potential to deliver the best fuel efficiency. The Prius was first launched in Japan in October 1997, two months ahead of schedule. The development cost was around $1 billion, an industry average for a new car.

Back to California: 

While becoming an instant succes in Japan, things looked somehow different in the US:

“The cars had been modified for the U.S. market, with more horsepower and additional emissions equipment, and the battery pack was now lighter. But the team had a hard time figuring out who the car would appeal to. It quickly learned that extreme environmentalists weren’t interested in hybrids.”

“No one really knew who might buy these things”.

Then, in the year 2000, lower emissions (e.g. by 80%), fuel economies and the “cool factor” lead by this technology attracted a number of users, specially in the San Francisco area. Resale value mitigated the risk of going with a new technology: the Prius retained 57% of its value after 3 years. Pride of ownership remains very high: only 2% of buyers would lease a Prius in the US.

“People waited months to get their Priuses, as production struggled to keep pace with demand. U.S. sales doubled to 53,991 in 2004 and nearly doubled again to 107,897 the following year–about 60% of global Prius sales.”

Bottom line: as seen when studying many other “killer apps”, market timing is key and success is based on delivering competitive solutions driven by an affordable price/feature relationship, e.g. note that the Prius is not an EV but a hybrid. The role of legislators would focus on enabling a political, social and economic environment where not just “the one” but several innovative alternatives can see the light and compete in a dynamic and entreprenurial society.

Let me tell you, I love my Prius.

Reference: ScienceDaily, Physorg.

Source paper: “The allure of technology: How France and California promoted electric and hybrid vehicles to reduce urban air pollution” by David Calef and Robert Goble.

Additional insights: “How hybrid power surprised the car industry“, “The birth of the Prius“

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