Innovator’s Dilemmas: bold vs. credible? (2)
“A bold vision sees beyond volatility, with a kind of calm perspective that is not trapped by the assumptions of the present (…) At times, clarity will be rewarded, even when it turns out to be wrong. Clarity is good and we should strive for it, but not at the expense of truth (…) action is great, unless it is the wrong action.”
“A forecast is a plausible, internally consistent view of what might happen. It is designed to be provocative (…) a forecast doesn’t need to ‘come true’ to be worthwhile. A forecast should be provoke new thought: new insights, new possible actions, or new ways of thinking about the present. You don’t need to agree with a forecast to find it useful.”
Read “Get There Early” by Bob Joahansen.
“Future studies analysts select scenario features so they are both possible and uncomfortable (…) Sensitivity analysis analyzes changes in one variable only, which is useful for simple changes, while scenario planning tries to expose policy makers to significant interactions of major variables.”
Wikipedia on ’scenario planning‘.
I’m following up on yesterday’s post because I do think that there is a need for being both bold and credible when setting targets for innovative projects. Credibility comes from developing and sharing the insights behind a vision:
- current vs. new paradigms and driving trends, early signals (if any),
- how value is and/or will be generated, and for how long (e.g. what’s the window of opportunity),
- the role of players in the value chain (understanding that often times alternative chains happen to coexist)
- variables and shifts involving value migration, destruction and/or new value creation.
To be bold, one needs to be able to portray relevant scenarios and forecasts which help teams discuss the difference between operating under current vs. new paradigms. A study conducted by McKinsey and AT&T failed the “boldness test” when claiming some 20 years ago that there would just be a about a milling wireless subscribers by now, which is substantially different from today’s reality. The same can be said about mobile email, which some market analysts dismissed some years ago.
Picture credits: “Digital image content © 1997-2007 Hemera Technologies Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Jupiter Images Corporation. All Rights Reserved”.
| J. de Francisco |  |
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| Chicago, 17 April 08 |  |
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